Even with all the progress in commercializing fusion energy (and there is a lot!), there isn’t a clear winner yet.
In our final article of the series, The Fusion Report posts our fifth third article in our “The Fusion Decathlon” series. The last three articles explored the various approaches to commercial fusion energy, including magnetic fusion energy, inertial fusion energy, and the hybrid approaches. In this article, we will declare the overall decathlon medalists (spoiler alert, there aren’t any), and where each approach (and company) is at for a given event in the fusion decathlon.
And The Winner of the Fusion Decathlon Is… No One (Yet)
Like we said at the beginning of this series, the decathlon is not one event, it’s 10. In the same way, the fusion decathlon has a lot of components that need to be completed before anybody can be declared the winner. While there are a few of the events that are complete, or near complete, most of them are far from being finished, and all of the events absolutely need to be finished for there to be a winner. So how far are we into the fusion decathlon today – let’s see how things stack up…
The Events That Are Finished (or Nearly Finished): Events 8 & 9
On the face of it, Events 1 and 2 were completed when the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved ignition in December 2022. While NIF’s ignition event was incredibly important, it did not equal facility ignition which is really what is needed. Similar, Event 7 (Net Electricity and Commercial Roadmap) was not complete when Helion signed their power purchase agreement with Microsoft, though it was an important milestone towards the completion of Event 7.
The only two events that are arguably complete are Event 8 (Funding, Partnership and Business Viability), and Event 9 (Regulatory Pathway and Licensing). On Event 8, both Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) and Helion Energy have $1B plus funding raises and multiple power generation and industrial heat generation agreements. Just slightly behind, Shine Technologies has a working business model in medical isotopes (OK, it isn’t fusion energy, but it is a good related field) and raised over $1B, while TAE raised $1B and then went public. On Event 9, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) fusion framework, duplicated by the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), put real fusion friendly regulatory frameworks in place. We can truly call Event 8 and Event 9 complete.
The Events That Have Not (or Barely) Started: Events 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7
For a starter, Event 7 (Net Electricity and Commercial Roadmap) will be the last event to be completed because it essentially means everything is done. Event 3 (Target and Fuel Fabrication/Delivery), Event 4 (Tritium Breeding and Fuel Cycle), Event 5 (First Wall and Plasma-Facing Materials), and Event 6 (Blanket and Thermal Energy Conversion) are incredibly difficult; these are 100% new science and technology capabilities. These also represent technologies that are as much specific to fusion energy as Event 1 (Plasma and Fusion Performance) and Event 2 (Driver and Energy Delivery Technology). In a sense, the fusion industry has pushed these towards the end of the development cycle, essentially “kicking the can” down the road. The most notable exception to this is Japan-based Kyoto Fusioneering, who is working specifically on these technologies. Another early standout is Inertia Fusion, which is putting a huge focus on the fabrication of commercially-priced inertial fusion fuel targets.
On the one hand, Event 5 (First Wall and Plasma-Facing Materials) is where inertial fusion energy (IFE) has a slight advantage over magnetic fusion energy (MFE). MFE, which has to position its highly powerful magnets close to the plasma, has more significant issues on first wall and plasma facing materials, issues where IFE has far more margin. On the other hand, Event 3 (Target & Fuel Fabrication/Delivery) is much easier for MFE than for IFE, since IFE must place its targets at least every second (if not quicker) with very high spatial and temporal precision. MFE simply has to inject its frozen fuel and warm it up, something that happens naturally in the plasma cycle. In any case, all four of these events must be completed before one can declare the fusion decathlon a success.
At the Halfway Mark: Events 1 and 2
And in the middle of the pack are Event 1 (Plasma & Fusion Performance) and Event 2 (Driver & Energy Delivery Technology). Despite what we said earlier about NIF’s breakthrough ignition not being the same as facility energy gain, there are several contenders who are getting truly close to achieving that elusive goal of achieving triple product. Notably, research tokamaks KSTAR (Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research machine), China’s EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak) and HL-3 machines, Japan’s JT-60, and the UK’s JET (Joint European Torus) have all achieved or exceeded plasma temperatures of 100 million degrees C, with EAST doing so for over a thousand seconds. The German W7-X (Wendelstein 7-X) stellarator, operated by the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, has also achieved plasma temperatures of 100 million degrees C.
On the privately-funded MFE side are the Tokamak Energy ST40, the Helion Polaris, CFS SPARC, and the TAE NORM fusion machines. Polaris, which was completed in 2024, is a 7th generation 60-foot long nuclear fusion prototype which in 2026 became the first private fusion machine to achieve 150 million degrees C and demonstrate deuterium-tritium fusion. While Polaris did not achieve Q>1, it is very close and could theoretically do so with later trials. Another “close” machine is the Tokamak Energy ST40 spherical tokamak, which achieved 100 million degrees C in 2022. Slightly behind Polaris and ST40 is TAE’s NORM, which demonstrated 70 million degrees C temperatures and is designed to operate over 100 million degrees C. However, NORM is not designed to reach Q>1 milestone; that will have to wait for TAE’s successor device known as DaVinci in the early 2030s. The CFS Sparc machine, which is scheduled to be completed in late 2026, is designed to achieve temperatures exceeding 100 million degrees Celsius and reach a Q>1 in 2027.
On the IFE side, LLNL’s NIF is the only machine in the world to achieve Q>1. The Sandia National Laboratory Z Machine has demonstrated that it is able to produce fusion conditions and is considered a viable candidate to achieve ignition, but has not done so yet. Similarly, research machines Laser Megajoule (France), the University of Rochester Omega Laser Facility, and China’s Shenguang-II and Shenguang-III laser inertial fusion machines have demonstrated steps along the way to Q>1, but have not achieved it yet. While private IFE efforts are gaining significant traction, most notably First Light Fusion, Focused Energy, Inertia, and Pacific Fusion, none are close to achieving Q>1 yet.
Rounding the First Turn: Event 10 (Workforce and Supply Chain)
In a similar manner to the way that Event 9 (Regulatory Path and Licensing) is a government event, Event 10 (Workforce, Supply Chain, and Manufacturing Scale) is a national (or more likely, a multinational) event. On the positive side, all of the major industrialized countries have now realized that workforce and supply chain development are areas that they need to concentrate on if they are to successfully achieve a credible and sustainable fusion ecosystem. In fact, many countries, through government, public, or private organizations have actually started to tackle this issue. Unfortunately, only China has applied a “moonshot-style” effort to this. China is actively working towards training 10,000 PhDs in fusion energy and related fields for its workforce. Similarly, projections show that 77,000 STEM PhDs will graduate by 2025 across a variety of different fields. The rest of the world has a ways to go to match these numbers…
Conclusion: There Is No Clear Winner Yet
As we said in the beginning of the article, this race is a long ways from over and there is a lot of room for any party to push ahead (and eventually win). Even the most optimistic pundits, and there are several, do not expect that practical fusion power plants will be fielded first before the early 2030s, and significant amounts of fusion power won’t be generated for at least five years later. Achieving the milestone 10% of total power is probably another five years further out (i.e. early to mid-2040s), even under ideal conditions. That said, there is no race with greater prizes than fusion energy holds. We just have to remember that there are 10 events (essentially all marathons), and even completing all of them would be a significant achievement.
