What China’s aggressive investments and rapid progress in fusion technology mean for global energy leadership.
Fusion energy is one of those subjects that it seems nearly every industrialized country is very interested in. The allure of machines that can essentially convert seawater into limitless clean energy cannot be understated. Fusion energy machines are the sort of technology that can provide not only free energy to a country, but also an export market which can generate both cash and political influence. The leading countries in fusion energy technology will be the ones that reap these benefits, much in the same way that fossil fuel exporting countries do.
One of the bigger players in the fusion energy game is China. China’s desire to be first in fusion is very understandable. China is the world’s largest consumer of electricity, utilizing an estimated 9.9 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity in 2024. Moreover, China’s electrical growth is expected to increase between 6% and 7% over the next decade. In addition to being the world’s largest consumer of electricity, China is also the world’s largest importer of crude oil, importing 11.3 billion barrels of oil per day in 2023 (see below). Finally, China has historically aimed for a growth rate of 6% per year; in 2023 the growth rate it achieved was roughly 5.2%, and there are signs that China struggled to achieve that rate, with uneven growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Fusion energy could provide a long-term fix to both of these issues.
Now that it is clear that China has the motivation to be a leader in fusion, the relative question is where are they today in the race to fusion, and how much are they investing in fusion energy to get there? Let’s start with the first question.
Where is China’s Fusion Energy Program Today?
With the exception of international research programs like the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the fusion energy world is not known for necessarily disclosing its progress on a regular basis, at least not unless it suits them. This has been true regardless of whether the fusion program is government-sponsored, or a venture-funded fusion program. China is no different than any other country or private company in this respect. That said, there have been several announcements regarding China’s fusion energy programs that help us understand what they have achieved to date:
The centerpiece of China’s fusion energy program is the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (“EAST”), located in Hefei. In late 2024, EAST set a record by confining a steady-state H-mode plasma for over 1,000 seconds. H-mode is the desired operating regime for tokamak reactors (at least today).
China is also believed to have built a large inertial confinement fusion (ICF) facility in Mianyang in the south of the country. Like the US National Ignition Facility (NIF), which was the first facility to exceed a “Q” of 1.0, the goal of the China ICF appears to be focused at least as much on improving thermonuclear weapon design as it is on the generation of fusion energy. The Mianyang facility looks to be 1.5 times the size of the US NIF facility.
China is currently building a fusion energy machine known as the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR), also in the Hefei area near EAST. CFETR’s stated goal in its first phase is to demonstrate tritium breeding and a fusion power output of at least 200 MW. In its second phase, CFETR is expected to generate power of over 1GW, and act as a facility to test concepts for production fusion power plants. CFETR is expected to be completed in the 2030s.
Assuming that these milestones are real, this puts China at a similar position as Western fusion energy programs, with possibly only US venture-funded enterprises such as Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) and Helion ahead of them. However, these companies tend to be at least as tight-lipped on their progress as government fusion programs are. Whatever the case, it is fairly clear that China has done a good job of catching up to the West, having been a fusion laggard as little as 20 years ago and now being at or near the front of the pack in fusion milestones.
How Much is China Investing in Fusion Energy?
Like US fusion energy programs (at least until recently), China’s fusion investments come from both public (government) funding and private investment funds. The current public funding for fusion energy in China is estimated to be between $1B and $1.5B annually. In addition, there have been several private companies that have received funding ranging from millions to nearly a billion dollars US. This investment is also reflected in the number of fusion energy patents that have been filed in China over the past ten years or so (see below; Astamuse).
Perhaps the biggest advantage for China in the fusion energy race is that it’s appetite for investing in fusion energy shows more of a long-term commitment and certainty than that of the US government, where partisan views on the “right” sources of energy (and electricity in particular) seem to change every four years, an issue that is offset at least in part by US venture capital investments.
Conclusion: China’s Fusion Energy Dragon Is Real, and Gaining Ground
Clearly, China takes fusion seriously, and is investing significant funding into achieving commercial fusion. The advantage that US and other western countries have revolved around where the real innovations will occur when it comes to successfully commercializing fusion energy. Commercial enterprises have the advantage of being economically-motivated; they are fully committed to “going for it” so that they can achieve a significant return on investment (ROI), while government-sponsored programs have always suffered from motivations to achieve scientific or political goals as much as economic goals. Whether these motivations will impact China’s fusion energy programs remains to be seen.