If Electric Vehicles Go Away, Is Fusion Energy Still Important???

One of the areas that I have previously worked in before taking on The Fusion Report was electric vehicle (EV) charging systems. Prior to the start of the Trump 2.0 administration, EV charging was forecasted to be one of the most important drivers for US electricity demand growth, second only to data centers. Growth in EV sales was expected to reach 32% of US car sales by 2030, up from 4.6% in 2020. This would also increase the total EVs in the US car fleet, roughly doubling them. This is a more important number, as the demand for charging electricity is based on the total number of EVs, not on the sale of EVs.

Impact of Trump 2.0 on U.S. EV Sales

Under the second Trump administration, EV sales have slowed considerably. Analyst expectations today are that EV sales will only be 23% of all US car sales by 2030 versus the 32% previously forecasted. This reduction is driven by a couple of factors:

• Elimination of EV tax credits: Prior to Trump 2.0, purchasers of a new EV could get a $7,500 tax credit. Additionally, installation of commercial EV charging networks could also receive federal and state tax credits.
• Elon Musk Backlash on Tesla Sales: Tesla, which was by far the leading US EV by sales, is chaired by Elon Musk, until recently the unofficial head of the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency”, or DOGE. This role has created a very large backlash against Tesla vehicle sales, both worldwide and in the US. The impact on Tesla’s Q1 2025 revenue was huge, exceeding a miss of over $1.5 billion versus analyst expectations. Tesla’s profitability also slumped.
  

How Will the Slowed Growth in EV Sales Impact Electricity Demand?

For the next four years, the slowing in EV sales will have a moderate impact on the demand for electricity, especially in peak hours when most EVs are charged. In some ways, this would actually help EV grid reliability, especially over the next few years where additional power to feed other demand growth factors such as datacenter electrical demand growth. Longer term (i.e., post-Trump) it is more likely than not that EV sales growth will resume more rapid growth. 

While it is not likely that federal EV tax credits will return, other factors such as the reduction in the cost of EV batteries and EVs themselves, continued concern about the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment, better EV charging networks (ironically, the Tesla Supercharger Network will help the sale of all EVs, not just Tesla), and state tax credits will help the market return to the growth rates that were seen previously. Increased interest in the global EV market will also drive increased US EV sales.

What Does All of This Mean for Fusion Energy?

One of the most interesting ideas for using fusion energy, especially smaller fusion machines, was to position them near areas where large EV charging points were located. A single Tesla V3 Supercharger can consume 350 kW of energy; a large Supercharger location such as the one in Barstow, CA can have 120 stalls, with a potential peak demand of 42 MW. While it is unlikely that every one of the Superchargers will be on at a given time, utilizing a 50 MW fusion machine might make more sense than trying to route that much power to a charging station, especially one in a remote area that doesn’t have solar power as an option.

While it is unlikely that EV charging will have the same impact on electricity demand as data centers (especially AI data centers), the growth in EV charging will definitely have a meaningful impact on the need for fusion energy, especially in China and other developing countries like India. At least with India, selling modular fusion reactors could be a good market for fusion machine manufacturers to tap into.